By Garth Andrus, Global Leader of AI & Org Transformation, Andersen Consulting
Billy Beane didn’t discover new data. He discovered that everyone was overvaluing the wrong data.
While every other baseball team obsessed over batting average and stolen bases, Beane asked a simpler question: what actually predicts runs scored? The answer—on-base percentage—had been sitting in everyone’s spreadsheets for decades. Nobody weighted it correctly.
The Oakland A’s didn’t have better players. They had better insight into what made players valuable. They won 103 games with a payroll a fraction of the Yankees’.
The same mistake is happening right now with AI transformation. Same blind spot. Different playing field.
The AI Readiness Trap
Nearly 8 in 10 companies are now using gen AI. Just as many report no significant bottom-line impact. Meanwhile, 90% of AI use cases remain stuck in pilot mode.
Most Fortune 1000 companies have done some version of an AI readiness assessment. They’ve measured data infrastructure maturity. Change management capability. Technology adoption history. Workforce digital fluency. Governance frameworks.
These are the batting averages of AI transformation. They look relevant. They’re easy to measure. Consultants love to benchmark them. But they alone don’t predict success.
The on-base percentage nobody’s measuring
When we dug into what actually differentiates the winners, one factor kept surfacing: leadership capability. Not generic leadership competence—specific capabilities that AI transformation demands and that traditional leadership development doesn’t address.
Can your leaders make investment decisions when traditional ROI models don’t apply? Can they envision and architect work at the human-AI interface rather than just automating what exists? Do they know when to drive acceleration and when to create space for learning—and do they agree on which is which? Can they set the conditions for navigating the ethical judgment calls that AI creates daily? Can they lead the organization through fundamental changes to how work gets done while maintaining workforce trust?
These are some of the capabilities that determine whether transformation gains traction or stalls. And they’re measurable.
What this looks like in practice
Consider two companies with identical readiness scores making comparable AI investments.
Company A recruited for batting average—impressive credentials, bold vision, high investment conviction. But they’re low on risk calibration, structural imagination, and learning velocity. A year in, pilots that never scaled and a board asking hard questions.
Company B recruited for on-base percentage—tempo command, workforce navigation, learning velocity. Same readiness profile. Different leadership capabilities. Measurable returns within a year.
Your Moneyball moment
Beane’s insight wasn’t really about baseball. It was about institutional blindness—entire industries measuring what’s traditional and familiar instead of what actually matters most.
We’re making the same mistake with AI transformation. Hundreds of readiness assessments. Exposed data gaps. Maturity models. Governance frameworks. Almost none that measure whether the leadership team can actually execute.
So here’s the question worth asking—whether you’re mid-transformation or planning the next one:
Do you actually know if your leadership team has the capabilities to pull this off? Not the experience. Not the intent. Not their track record with previous transformations that operated by different rules. The specific capabilities that AI transformation requires?
Because in the end, Beane was right. It’s not about only having the best players. It’s about knowing what actually predicts winning. And for AI transformation, that means leadership.
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Andersen Consulting has built The AI Leadership Execution Assessment that measures exactly that—nine dimensions that predict AI execution success. If you’re making significant AI bets and want to understand where your leadership gaps are before they become expensive lessons, that conversation might be worth having.
Reach me at garth.andrus@andersenconsulting.com